Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Obama-Edwards 2008: why Hillary didn't actually win in New Hampshire.

2 reasons Hillary didn't actually win in New Hampshire:

Reason 1: Certainly Hillary beat Obama by 2% in New Hampshire, hardly a resounding victory for a candidate who had been leading in the polls there for *all* of 2007 (especially after Obama's resounding 9% win in Iowa). But Hillary actually *lost* to Obama-Edwards 2008 by a huge margin--15 percentage points. If I were Hillary, I think I'd quit now (not that I'd ever be crazy enough to run for president or any other political office in the first place).

Reason 2: Some 3% of Hillary's lead over Obama (that is, *all* of it!) can be attributed to the purely random *luck* of order effect. (And if you don't believe that, let me know, and we can talk about it further, because it's *easily* empirically demonstrable. Even *you* probably fall prey to order effect in some area of your life.)


Joe said...

b have you seen this:

also these:

Funny how the minor candidates seem to the the only ones with a realistic programme.

Joe said...

try this

and this