Tuesday, March 11, 2008

A wrap for Obama

With 44 of 55 states/territories having voted, and 3 full months of the primary season gone already, it pretty much looks like a wrap for Barack Obama.

By Delegate count:

In January, Obama 63, Clinton 48

On Super Tuesday, Obama 847, Clinton 825

In the rest of February, Obama 287, Clinton 164.5

In March, Obama 207, Clinton 205

Clinton will probably finally win a month with Pennsylvania, the only contest in April. But she's behind by 156 delegates, and even a 55/45 split in Pennsylvania will only get her 16 of those back.

Meanwhile, for May, she'll probably win Indiana, West Virginia, and Kentucky, with 183 total delegates, but he'll win North Carolina, and Oregon, with 199 delegates total. So that's probably a win in May for him too.

So help me out here. This is what I can't figure out. I understand, in a way, why Hillary doesn't step aside and admit the obvious--that she will not be the democratic party's nominee. What I don't understand is why people keep sending money to her campaign. That's a mystery to me. No matter how big an Obama fan I was, I would not send him another dime to campaign with once it became clear that the only way he could win was to miraculously convince the superdelegates that they should overturn the clear vote of the people.

But I guess that's the ... sort of more, perhaps, educated Obama's crowd type take on things. Or something.

3 comments:

Chad Minnick said...

It's because you are forgetting Florida and Michigan. Factor those back in and it's anyone's ball game.

Also, it is almost impossible for Obama to win enough delegates to obtain a majority. Without a majority it will go to the convention where the delegates will decide.

Why should she quit? No one else in her place would drop out. Why would you quit if you had the chance to be the leader of the free world? She's not running for the good of the party, and neither is Obama. Both are interested in becoming the most powerful person in the world.

byron smith said...

Also, in politics, you can always hope for a scandal.

Benjamin Ady said...

Chad,

Not really. Even if Florida and Michigan *do* vote again, and Hillary wins them both 55/45, she still picks up less than 40 delegates between the two of them. which still leaves her down around 100 delegates, in a worse case scenario.

Meanwhile, she just lost another superdelegate vote in Spitzer.Her lead among *them* has shrunk to 37.

Byron. You have a point. But it seems to me that a scandal involving Hillary or Bill is somewhat more likely than a scandal involving Obama.