Thursday, July 03, 2008

What their gambling habits say about the presidential candidates

I read this fascinating article on Obama and McCain's gambling habits. It sort of reiterates the doom for McCain in the upcoming election. From both a political and a gambling perspective, Obama's choice of poker, along with his style of play, speak to him being a winner. McCain's choice of craps, on the other hand, speak to him being a loser, both in gambling, and in politics.

Why? Well, people who play craps, for the most part (that is, except for the exceptionally dedicated dice control people), are there to lose, and have a hell of a lot of fun doing it. The house has a definite edge off the top, plus for most people the house also have the edge in terms of standard deviation, which just means that completely aside from their disadvantage off the top, most players don't have a nearly big enough bankroll to avoid the house eventualy winning, on any given day, simply from the standard deviation downswings which will leave the player broke.

People who play poker in the Obama style are there to win, and they're fighting neither the house edge off the top nor the casino's bottomless pockets in terms of standard deviation.

Beyond that, Obama uses the poker games as a political asset. Whereas the craps games turn out to be a big political liability to McCain.

All of this speaks relatively clearly to the crushing McCain is crusing toward in November. Hooray.

No comments: